🔗 Share this article

An individual earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was made public, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from non-public details of the event.

Sudden Shift in Wagers

Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by the close of the month increased in the hours before President Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended.

One account, which registered on the site last month and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436,000 from a starting bet of over $32,000.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification.

Probability Spikes Before Announcement

Platform data shows that traders put the odds of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.

But these probabilities had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of the next day, indicating a sharp shift in market sentiment just before the official statement was made.

"This specific wager has all the signs of a bet based on non-public details," commented an industry expert.

A handful of other individuals also profited significant sums from similar wagers.

Legal Questions Emerges

Elected officials are starting to take note.

Proposed legislation put forward on Monday aims to prohibit federal workers from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet.

The Prediction Market Landscape

Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years, with users able to bet on everything from elections to politics.

Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency.

Trading on insider information is illegal in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting arena.

A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."