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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a resolute approach regarding Ukraine. Following delivering statements of "serious ramifications" last August if Putin persisted obstructing peace discussions, he eventually introduced major penalties on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially impacted Putin's ability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

However, with his newly presented 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, that was developed by US and Russian officials excluding Ukraine's or EU participation, the former president has seemingly returned to his pro-Putin approach.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's proposal would in practice favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite ringing declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", much of the proposal effectively weaken that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business past, the former president seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, like giving Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will appease the ruler. But, Russia's war is not simply about occupying a destroyed area of economically weakened land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's clear intention to weaken it so it ceases to serves as an enticing model for the Russian people of the accountable governance that Putin's deepening autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although keeping in place the currently divided Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would force the nation to surrender all of Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been failed to seize in more than a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defensive positions critically weakened.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that constitute a critical barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Putin a unobstructed path to the capital should he eventually decide to restart the war.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a move that would facilitate renewed hostilities more feasible for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's plan places no such restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's efforts to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people government as radicals, the plan asserts: "Every radical ideology and actions must be rejected and banned." Apparently to underscore this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative makes Russia promise not to "attack other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has violated comparable accords in the past – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a return of captured areas in the region to the government – why should we trust Putin now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international protection assurances. While the proposal promises a "strong joint armed reaction" if Russia restart its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the details vary from vague to alarming. The plan would not just prevent the nation Nato membership but also preclude Nato members from deploying military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby preventing the reassurance force, presumptively commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Russia from rebuilding his reduced military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

World Response

Another side agreement apparently would offer the nation with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an act of war endangering the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. But in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the dedication of alliance members, including the US administration, to react militarily to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not