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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the top if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.